Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Danilo Marques won · SUB

Elo1408

Elo1417

Mike RodriguezvsDanilo MarquesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Saturday, February 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danilo Marques won

SUB

Style matchupMike Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsDanilo Marques: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Danilo Marques wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Danilo Marques wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danilo Marques at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Danilo Marques has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Danilo Marques threatens submissions; Mike Rodriguez has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Danilo Marques has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Rodriguez has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
Mike Rodriguez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Rodriguez

Red Corner

Danilo Marques

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1408

Elo

1417

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

208.28 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18

KOvs Da Un Jung · Dec 19

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20

SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21

latest

Danilo MarquesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Sep 20

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jun 21

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike RodriguezMetricDanilo Marques

4.35

Strikes / min

1.44

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.52

41%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.93

37%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike RodriguezDanilo Marques

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)Danilo Marques(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.7|Blue +9.7

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike RodriguezTargetDanilo Marques

By target zone

43% acc · 19%

Head

100% acc · 93%

83% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 7%

73% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

58% acc · 69%

Distance

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 31%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 93%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Rodriguez rounds

even

Danilo Marques rounds

Round 1Danilo Marques edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 2Danilo Marques edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

29 / 29

66%

Sig Str %

100%

34 / 43

Total Strikes

55 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

7:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danilo Marques	3 / 3	13 / 16	3 / 5	0
1	Mike Rodriguez	8 / 12	23 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Danilo Marques	26 / 26	42 / 42	1 / 2	2
2	Mike Rodriguez	8 / 12	11 / 15	0 / 0	0

Mike Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights7

Danilo Marques

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4