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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Rio won · SUB R3

Elo1353

Elo1352

Mike RiovsJohn CoferUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Rio won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:11

Style matchupMike Rio: WrestlervsJohn Cofer: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: John Cofer wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Mike Rio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Cofer at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Rio enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Rio threatens submissions; John Cofer has lost 50% of fights by sub.
John Cofer has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors John Cofer (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Rio

Red Corner

John Cofer

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike RioL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · May 13

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 13

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14

latest

John Cofer

oldest →

KOvs Justin Lawrence · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike RioMetricJohn Cofer

1.68

Strikes / min

2.73

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

53%

Strike defense

62%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

1.22

Takedown defense

64%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike RioJohn Cofer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Rio(4 fights)John Cofer(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike RioTargetJohn Cofer

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

41% acc · 61%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 29%

83% acc · 33%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

37% acc · 63%

Distance

45% acc · 65%

77% acc · 33%

Clinch

64% acc · 23%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Rio rounds

even

John Cofer rounds

Round 1Mike Rio edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:05

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Mike Rio edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:34

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 67

Sig Strikes

31 / 59

43.7%

Sig Str %

54%

67 / 111

Total Strikes

57 / 87

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:53

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Cofer	7 / 18	15 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Rio	11 / 25	24 / 40	1 / 5	0
2	John Cofer	17 / 31	29 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Rio	16 / 35	24 / 47	2 / 4	0
3	John Cofer	7 / 10	13 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Rio	3 / 7	19 / 24	1 / 2	1

Mike Rio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

John Cofer

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2