← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Myles Jury won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1371

Mike RiccivsMyles JuryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Myles Jury won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Ricci wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Myles Jury wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Ricci at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Mike Ricci (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Ricci

Red Corner

Myles Jury

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1490

Elo

1371

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Ricci

oldest →

vs Colton Smith · Dec 12

vs Colin Fletcher · Mar 13

latest

Myles JuryL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 15

KOvs Mike de la Torre · Apr 17

vs Rick Glenn · Dec 17

KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 18

vs Andre Fili · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike RicciMetricMyles Jury

1.80

Strikes / min

2.94

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

65%

Strike defense

66%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

2.16

54%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike RicciMyles Jury

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Ricci(3 fights)Myles Jury(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.5|Blue -119.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike RicciTargetMyles Jury

By target zone

18% acc · 52%

Head

15% acc · 36%

42% acc · 32%

Body

29% acc · 9%

67% acc · 16%

Leg

92% acc · 55%

By position

17% acc · 56%

Distance

29% acc · 91%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

83% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Ricci rounds

even

Myles Jury rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Myles Jury edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Myles Jury edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:46

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 98

Sig Strikes

22 / 72

26.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

31 / 105

Total Strikes

29 / 84

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

5:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Myles Jury	6 / 20	6 / 20	1 / 1
1	Mike Ricci	11 / 35	12 / 36	0 / 0
2	Myles Jury	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 2
2	Mike Ricci	10 / 49	10 / 49	0 / 0
3	Myles Jury	2 / 3	9 / 15	3 / 3
3	Mike Ricci	4 / 14	9 / 20	0 / 0

Mike Ricci

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Myles Jury

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12