Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Ricci won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Mike RiccivsColin FletcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mike Ricci won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colin Fletcher wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Mike Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colin Fletcher at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Ricci has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Ricci (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Ricci

Red Corner

Colin Fletcher

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Colton Smith · Dec 12

vs Myles Jury · Sep 13

latest

Colin Fletcher

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike RicciMetricColin Fletcher

1.80

Strikes / min

3.10

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

65%

Strike defense

62%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.00

54%

Takedown defense

27%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike RicciColin Fletcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Ricci(3 fights)Colin Fletcher(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.3|Blue -138.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike RicciTargetColin Fletcher

By target zone

35% acc · 72%

Head

19% acc · 30%

41% acc · 26%

Body

40% acc · 27%

10% acc · 2%

Leg

37% acc · 43%

By position

29% acc · 77%

Distance

27% acc · 86%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

73% acc · 17%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Ricci rounds

even

Colin Fletcher rounds

Round 1Mike Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Mike Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Mike Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:52

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 137

Sig Strikes

37 / 127

34%

Sig Str %

29%

55 / 145

Total Strikes

61 / 152

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:38

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Colin Fletcher	15 / 54	17 / 56	0 / 0
1	Mike Ricci	18 / 52	18 / 52	0 / 0
2	Colin Fletcher	10 / 37	14 / 41	0 / 1
2	Mike Ricci	17 / 41	21 / 45	1 / 1
3	Colin Fletcher	12 / 36	30 / 55	0 / 1
3	Mike Ricci	12 / 44	16 / 48	1 / 1

Mike Ricci

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Colin Fletcher

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2