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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pyle won · S-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1491

Mike PylevsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pyle won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Pyle wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Mike Pyle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pyle at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1364

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricRick Story

2.74

Strikes / min

3.80

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

60%

Strike defense

62%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

2.53

70%

Takedown defense

63%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PyleRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pyle(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.4|Blue +126.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetRick Story

By target zone

39% acc · 73%

Head

42% acc · 54%

50% acc · 12%

Body

69% acc · 35%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

38% acc · 73%

Distance

41% acc · 37%

88% acc · 21%

Clinch

69% acc · 32%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

53% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pyle rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 3Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:24

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 74

Sig Strikes

57 / 111

39.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

86 / 133

Total Strikes

94 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

73.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

9:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rick Story	27 / 52	55 / 81	1 / 1	0
1	Mike Pyle	4 / 10	14 / 20	0 / 0	1
2	Rick Story	7 / 11	16 / 20	1 / 1	0
2	Mike Pyle	4 / 14	35 / 48	0 / 0	1
3	Rick Story	23 / 48	23 / 48	1 / 5	0
3	Mike Pyle	25 / 50	37 / 65	0 / 0	0

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16