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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pyle won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1364

Elo1352

Mike PylevsJosh NeerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pyle won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:56

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsJosh Neer: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Josh Neer wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Mike Pyle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Neer at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Neer is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mike Pyle has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Mike Pyle has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle

Red Corner

Josh Neer

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1364

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

Josh NeerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11

SUBvs Duane Ludwig · Jan 12

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Oct 12

vs Court McGee · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricJosh Neer

2.74

Strikes / min

3.29

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

60%

Strike defense

58%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

1.09

70%

Takedown defense

46%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PyleJosh Neer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pyle(10 fights)Josh Neer(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.2|Blue -12.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetJosh Neer

By target zone

57% acc · 67%

Head

38% acc · 53%

83% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 47%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

63% acc · 56%

Distance

42% acc · 53%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

82% acc · 47%

50% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pyle rounds

even

Josh Neer rounds

Round 1Mike Pyle edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:55

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 28

Sig Strikes

19 / 35

64%

Sig Str %

54%

38 / 57

Total Strikes

39 / 59

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Neer	19 / 35	39 / 59	0 / 1	0
1	Mike Pyle	18 / 28	38 / 57	1 / 1	0

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Josh Neer

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5