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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pyle won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1364

Elo1352

Mike PylevsJames HeadUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pyle won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:55

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsJames Head: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Mike Pyle wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Mike Pyle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pyle at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Pyle has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle

Red Corner

James Head

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1364

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

James Head

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Ring · Jun 11

SUBvs Papy Abedi · Apr 12

vs Brian Ebersole · Jul 12

SUBvs Jason High · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricJames Head

2.74

Strikes / min

2.75

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.11

60%

Strike defense

49%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

0.41

70%

Takedown defense

66%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PyleJames Head

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pyle(10 fights)James Head(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.8|Blue -11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +43.0|Blue -43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetJames Head

By target zone

50% acc · 78%

Head

39% acc · 54%

50% acc · 11%

Body

86% acc · 46%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 22%

Distance

36% acc · 38%

33% acc · 22%

Clinch

73% acc · 62%

71% acc · 56%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pyle rounds

even

James Head rounds

Round 1Mike Pyle edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 17

Sig Strikes

13 / 25

52%

Sig Str %

52%

9 / 17

Total Strikes

15 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Head	13 / 25	15 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Pyle	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 0	0

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

James Head

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5