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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1491

Mike PylevsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsColby Covington: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Pyle wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pyle at +265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1364

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Mein · Aug 14

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricColby Covington

2.74

Strikes / min

3.81

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

3.64

70%

Takedown defense

68%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PyleColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pyle(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.0|Blue +127.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetColby Covington

By target zone

63% acc · 63%

Head

48% acc · 88%

56% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

44% acc · 44%

Distance

26% acc · 23%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

100% acc · 44%

Ground

73% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pyle rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:03Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:41

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 26

Sig Strikes

26 / 51

59.3%

Sig Str %

48%

33 / 46

Total Strikes

95 / 129

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

15%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

11:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Colby Covington	3 / 13	29 / 42	1 / 5	0
1	Mike Pyle	3 / 7	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Covington	13 / 22	34 / 44	1 / 4	0
2	Mike Pyle	6 / 9	12 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Covington	10 / 16	32 / 43	0 / 1	0
3	Mike Pyle	7 / 10	16 / 19	0 / 0	2

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17