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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Garcia won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1364
Mike Pyle
Elo1368

Mike PylevsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:34

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Alex Garcia wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Alex Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Garcia at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle
Red Corner
VS
Alex Garcia
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-220
(69%)
1364
Elo
1368
50
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jordan Mein · Aug 14
L
vs Colby Covington · May 15
W
KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16
L
KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16
L
KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18
latest
Alex GarciaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 16
L
vs Tim Means · Jun 17
W
SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18
L
vs Court McGee · Oct 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricAlex Garcia
2.74
Strikes / min
1.81
2.84
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
60%
Strike defense
59%
1.80
TDs / 15 min
3.72
70%
Takedown defense
66%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1518Strikes22.0 vs 24.4Takedowns0.9 vs 3.8Sub Atts0.82 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -0.2
Mike PyleAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mike Pyle(10 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.2|Blue +4.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -137.0|Blue +137.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

2
10% acc · 40%
Head
13
48% acc · 93%
2
100% acc · 40%
Body
1
50% acc · 7%
1
100% acc · 20%
Leg
0

By position

5
22% acc · 100%
Distance
12
46% acc · 86%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 7%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mike Pyle rounds
0
even
1
Alex Garcia rounds
Round 1Alex Garcia edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:28Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
5 / 24
Sig Strikes
14 / 29
20%
Sig Str %
48%
6 / 25
Total Strikes
19 / 34
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex Garcia14 / 2919 / 341 / 20
1Mike Pyle5 / 246 / 250 / 00

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10