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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mike Pierce won · U-DEC R3
Elo1356
Elo1354
Seth Baczynski

Mike PiercevsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · Friday, December 14, 2012Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mike Pierce has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mike Pierce has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Seth Baczynski has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce
Red Corner
VS
Seth Baczynski
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
1356
Elo
1354
45
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12
W
KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12
W
KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13
L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15
latest
Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13
W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14
L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricSeth Baczynski
2.62
Strikes / min
3.08
2.36
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
62%
Strike defense
51%
3.08
TDs / 15 min
0.89
71%
Takedown defense
48%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1563 vs 1555Strikes36.5 vs 24.0Takedowns2.4 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.30 vs 1.00Form0.5 vs 0.9
Mike PierceSeth Baczynski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mike Pierce(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -13.0|Blue +13.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

16
33% acc · 100%
Head
24
25% acc · 71%
0
Body
7
88% acc · 21%
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 9%

By position

10
29% acc · 63%
Distance
33
32% acc · 97%
3
75% acc · 19%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 3%
3
33% acc · 19%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Mike Pierce rounds
0
even
1
Seth Baczynski rounds
Round 1Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns3
Control3:56
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:57
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Seth Baczynski edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control3:09
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
16 / 48
Sig Strikes
34 / 106
36%
Sig Str %
28.3%
51 / 93
Total Strikes
94 / 185
6 / 12
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:02
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Seth Baczynski2 / 924 / 330 / 00
1Mike Pierce2 / 618 / 243 / 40
2Seth Baczynski10 / 3524 / 530 / 00
2Mike Pierce8 / 1516 / 241 / 40
3Seth Baczynski22 / 6246 / 990 / 00
3Mike Pierce6 / 2717 / 452 / 40

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11