Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pierce won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1351

Mike PiercevsPaul BradleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Bradley has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce

Red Corner

Paul Bradley

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1356

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Paul Bradley

oldest →

vs Rafael Natal · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricPaul Bradley

2.62

Strikes / min

2.26

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

4.13

62%

Strike defense

56%

3.08

TDs / 15 min

1.12

71%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PiercePaul Bradley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pierce(10 fights)Paul Bradley(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.7|Blue -4.7

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetPaul Bradley

By target zone

44% acc · 68%

Head

37% acc · 73%

100% acc · 19%

Body

91% acc · 16%

71% acc · 13%

Leg

70% acc · 11%

By position

46% acc · 79%

Distance

39% acc · 81%

93% acc · 17%

Clinch

80% acc · 19%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pierce rounds

even

Paul Bradley rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:17

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Paul Bradley edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:20

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 144

Sig Strikes

63 / 145

51.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

133 / 206

Total Strikes

69 / 155

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Bradley	17 / 39	18 / 40	0 / 1
1	Mike Pierce	24 / 56	34 / 67	0 / 0
2	Paul Bradley	22 / 45	24 / 49	0 / 1
2	Mike Pierce	17 / 31	35 / 52	0 / 1
3	Paul Bradley	24 / 61	27 / 66	0 / 2
3	Mike Pierce	34 / 57	64 / 87	0 / 0

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Paul Bradley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2