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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mike Pierce won · U-DEC R3
Elo1356
Elo1351

Mike PiercevsJulio PaulinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mike Pierce has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mike Pierce has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce
Red Corner
VS
Julio Paulino
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1356
Elo
1351
45
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12
W
vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12
W
KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13
L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15
latest
Julio Paulino
oldest →
L
vs TJ Grant · Sep 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricJulio Paulino
2.62
Strikes / min
0.97
2.36
Strikes absorbed / min
1.87
62%
Strike defense
48%
3.08
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
37%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-0.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes40.5 vs —Takedowns3.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Mike PierceJulio Paulino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mike Pierce(10 fights)Julio Paulino(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.1|Blue -5.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetJulio Paulino

By target zone

29
47% acc · 74%
Head
11
22% acc · 65%
3
60% acc · 8%
Body
5
71% acc · 29%
7
78% acc · 18%
Leg
1
25% acc · 6%

By position

15
39% acc · 38%
Distance
14
25% acc · 82%
2
40% acc · 5%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 18%
22
67% acc · 56%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Mike Pierce rounds
0
even
0
Julio Paulino rounds
Round 1Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control4:23
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control3:20
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns3
Control3:52
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
39 / 76
Sig Strikes
17 / 62
52.3%
Sig Str %
19%
90 / 131
Total Strikes
31 / 76
6 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
66.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
11:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Julio Paulino0 / 21 / 30 / 00
1Mike Pierce9 / 1529 / 352 / 20
2Julio Paulino8 / 3310 / 350 / 00
2Mike Pierce13 / 3022 / 411 / 40
3Julio Paulino9 / 2720 / 380 / 00
3Mike Pierce17 / 3139 / 553 / 40

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Julio Paulino

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2