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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pierce won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1352

Mike PiercevsDavid MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:55

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -660 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pierce has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
David Mitchell has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce

Red Corner

David Mitchell

Blue Corner

-660

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1356

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

David Mitchell

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Sep 10

vs Paulo Thiago · Aug 11

vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13

vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricDavid Mitchell

2.62

Strikes / min

1.74

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.06

62%

Strike defense

55%

3.08

TDs / 15 min

0.66

71%

Takedown defense

29%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PierceDavid Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pierce(10 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +43.0|Blue -43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetDavid Mitchell

By target zone

32% acc · 65%

Head

0% acc

80% acc · 24%

Body

89% acc · 100%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

24% acc · 24%

Distance

0% acc

56% acc · 53%

Clinch

65% acc · 100%

50% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pierce rounds

even

David Mitchell rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control3:09

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:31

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 41

Sig Strikes

17 / 44

43%

Sig Str %

38%

25 / 49

Total Strikes

81 / 110

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:40

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Mitchell	10 / 26	55 / 71	0 / 0
1	Mike Pierce	8 / 16	10 / 18	0 / 3
2	David Mitchell	7 / 18	26 / 39	0 / 0
2	Mike Pierce	9 / 25	15 / 31	0 / 1

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

David Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5