Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pierce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1351

Mike PiercevsCarlos Eduardo RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pierce has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce

Red Corner

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1356

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

oldest →

SUBvs Kris McCray · Nov 10

vs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricCarlos Eduardo Rocha

2.62

Strikes / min

1.24

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

62%

Strike defense

55%

3.08

TDs / 15 min

0.00

71%

Takedown defense

52%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PierceCarlos Eduardo Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pierce(10 fights)Carlos Eduardo Rocha(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.4|Blue -4.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -364.0|Blue +364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetCarlos Eduardo Rocha

By target zone

55% acc · 56%

Head

14% acc · 18%

75% acc · 9%

Body

80% acc · 47%

79% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 35%

By position

31% acc · 16%

Distance

26% acc · 35%

87% acc · 41%

Clinch

79% acc · 65%

70% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pierce rounds

even

Carlos Eduardo Rocha rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:55

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:29

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:55

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 51

Sig Strikes

17 / 37

63.3%

Sig Str %

44%

117 / 149

Total Strikes

38 / 66

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

34.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	10 / 24	12 / 26	0 / 0
1	Mike Pierce	10 / 18	16 / 25	1 / 2
2	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	1 / 4	8 / 15	0 / 0
2	Mike Pierce	11 / 14	48 / 55	1 / 5
3	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	6 / 9	18 / 25	0 / 0
3	Mike Pierce	11 / 19	53 / 69	1 / 3

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3