Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pierce won · SUB R3

Elo1356

Elo1351

Mike PiercevsAmilcar AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:11

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(84.2%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pierce has 32pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Pierce has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Amilcar Alves (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pierce

Red Corner

Amilcar Alves

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1356

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PierceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Amilcar Alves

oldest →

vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PierceMetricAmilcar Alves

2.62

Strikes / min

0.50

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

62%

Strike defense

30%

3.08

TDs / 15 min

0.00

71%

Takedown defense

53%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PierceAmilcar Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pierce(10 fights)Amilcar Alves(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.4|Blue +47.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PierceTargetAmilcar Alves

By target zone

44% acc · 35%

Head

43% acc · 75%

100% acc · 29%

Body

0% acc

85% acc · 35%

Leg

50% acc · 25%

By position

0% acc

Distance

17% acc · 25%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

0% acc

73% acc · 87%

Ground

100% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pierce rounds

even

Amilcar Alves rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:39

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:42

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:39

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 47

Sig Strikes

4 / 10

66.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

87 / 110

Total Strikes

12 / 20

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amilcar Alves	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Pierce	5 / 11	25 / 33	2 / 4	0
2	Amilcar Alves	2 / 3	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Pierce	19 / 28	42 / 56	1 / 1	0
3	Amilcar Alves	1 / 5	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Pierce	7 / 8	20 / 21	1 / 1	2

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Amilcar Alves

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2