← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · U-DEC

Elo1399

Elo1492

Mike PerryvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

U-DEC

Style matchupMike Perry: Pressure fightervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mike Perry wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Perry at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Perry

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1399

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Perry

oldest →

vs Alex Oliveira · Apr 19

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PerryMetricTim Means

4.32

Strikes / min

5.04

5.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

52%

Strike defense

60%

0.81

TDs / 15 min

1.14

78%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PerryTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Perry(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.9|Blue +92.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PerryTargetTim Means

By target zone

33% acc · 69%

Head

59% acc · 67%

67% acc · 13%

Body

93% acc · 20%

80% acc · 19%

Leg

94% acc · 13%

By position

39% acc · 97%

Distance

121

66% acc · 95%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

86% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Perry rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:22

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:13

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:33

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 161

Sig Strikes

128 / 192

40%

Sig Str %

67%

69 / 166

Total Strikes

143 / 207

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:08

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	27 / 40	30 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Perry	14 / 31	14 / 31	1 / 2	2
2	Tim Means	44 / 60	44 / 60	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Perry	20 / 60	20 / 60	0 / 1	0
3	Tim Means	57 / 92	69 / 104	0 / 1	0
3	Mike Perry	30 / 70	35 / 75	0 / 2	0

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29