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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Rodriguez won · U-DEC
Elo1399
Mike Perry
Elo1520
Daniel Rodriguez editorial illustration

Mike PerryvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

U-DEC

Style matchupMike Perry: Pressure fightervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Perry
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Rodriguez
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1399
Elo
1520
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Perry
oldest →
W
vs Alex Oliveira · Apr 19
L
DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19
W
vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20
L
vs Tim Means · Nov 20
latest
Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24
W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 24
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25
W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PerryMetricDaniel Rodriguez
4.32
Strikes / min
7.20
5.16
Strikes absorbed / min
5.40
52%
Strike defense
57%
0.81
TDs / 15 min
0.51
78%
Takedown defense
64%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.84Δ 2.64 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1533Strikes4.3 vs 7.9Takedowns0.8 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.20Form-0.3 vs 0.3
Mike PerryDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Mike Perry(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -121.6|Blue +121.6
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PerryTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

27
32% acc · 44%
Head
90
47% acc · 70%
14
67% acc · 23%
Body
11
79% acc · 9%
20
77% acc · 33%
Leg
28
93% acc · 22%

By position

60
46% acc · 98%
Distance
129
55% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mike Perry rounds
0
even
3
Daniel Rodriguez rounds
Round 1Daniel Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control1:26
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:51
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:32
53Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
61 / 132
Sig Strikes
129 / 235
46%
Sig Str %
54.3%
65 / 137
Total Strikes
145 / 252
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:49
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Rodriguez33 / 6336 / 670 / 00
1Mike Perry21 / 4225 / 471 / 10
2Daniel Rodriguez43 / 8147 / 850 / 00
2Mike Perry16 / 4216 / 421 / 20
3Daniel Rodriguez53 / 9162 / 1000 / 10
3Mike Perry24 / 4824 / 480 / 10

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14