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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Perry won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1399

Elo1487

Mike PerryvsAlex ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Mike Perry won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:19

Style matchupMike Perry: Pressure fightervsAlex Reyes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mike Perry wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Mike Perry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Perry at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Perry is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Alex Reyes has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Mike Perry has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Perry

Red Corner

Alex Reyes

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1399

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Alex ReyesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 23

vs Tom Nolan · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PerryMetricAlex Reyes

4.32

Strikes / min

4.46

5.16

Strikes absorbed / min

6.92

52%

Strike defense

48%

0.81

TDs / 15 min

1.50

78%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-2.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PerryAlex Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Perry(10 fights)Alex Reyes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PerryTargetAlex Reyes

By target zone

59% acc · 91%

Head

14% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 67%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

36% acc · 36%

Distance

30% acc · 50%

100% acc · 55%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Perry rounds

even

Alex Reyes rounds

Round 1Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 18

Sig Strikes

6 / 13

61%

Sig Str %

46%

11 / 18

Total Strikes

6 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Reyes	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Perry	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 0	0

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Alex Reyes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3