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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Karlos Vemola won · SUB R2

Elo1351

Elo1352

Mike MassenziovsKarlos VemolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Karlos Vemola won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:07

Style matchupMike Massenzio: WrestlervsKarlos Vemola: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Massenzio wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Karlos Vemola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Massenzio at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karlos Vemola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karlos Vemola threatens submissions; Mike Massenzio has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Mike Massenzio has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Massenzio has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Massenzio (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Massenzio

Red Corner

Karlos Vemola

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1351

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Massenzio

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Aug 10

vs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jun 11

vs Steve Cantwell · Oct 11

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Jan 12

latest

Karlos VemolaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10

KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10

vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Jul 12

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike MassenzioMetricKarlos Vemola

2.08

Strikes / min

1.67

3.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

54%

Strike defense

37%

2.74

TDs / 15 min

1.93

50%

Takedown defense

31%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.51Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike MassenzioKarlos Vemola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Massenzio(5 fights)Karlos Vemola(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -153.0|Blue +153.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike MassenzioTargetKarlos Vemola

By target zone

39% acc · 82%

Head

41% acc · 81%

50% acc · 18%

Body

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 19%

By position

35% acc · 64%

Distance

31% acc · 50%

57% acc · 36%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

Ground

86% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Massenzio rounds

even

Karlos Vemola rounds

Round 1Mike Massenzio edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:35

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Karlos Vemola edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:02

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

16 / 39

22%

Sig Str %

47.5%

14 / 30

Total Strikes

16 / 40

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

33%

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karlos Vemola	8 / 27	8 / 28	1 / 3	1
1	Mike Massenzio	11 / 25	14 / 28	1 / 3	0
2	Karlos Vemola	8 / 12	8 / 12	1 / 1	1
2	Mike Massenzio	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Mike Massenzio

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6