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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mike Malott won · SUB R1
Elo1552
Mike Malott
Elo1491
Yohan Lainesse

Mike MalottvsYohan LainesseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Malott won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Model Prediction: Mike Malott wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Mike Malott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Malott at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mike Malott enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Yohan Lainesse has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Malott
Red Corner
VS
Yohan Lainesse
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1552
Elo
1491
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike MalottW4 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Neil Magny · Jan 24
W
vs Trevin Giles · Nov 24
W
KOvs Charles Radtke · May 25
W
vs Kevin Holland · Oct 25
W
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 26
latest
Yohan Lainesse
oldest →
L
KOvs Gabe Green · Apr 22
W
vs Darian Weeks · Sep 22
L
SUBvs Sam Patterson · Jan 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike MalottMetricYohan Lainesse
4.02
Strikes / min
2.22
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
56%
Strike defense
58%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
0.94
57%
Takedown defense
72%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.93Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1499Strikes3.8 vs 2.2Takedowns3.0 vs 0.9Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.2
Mike MalottYohan Lainesse

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Mike Malott(8 fights)Yohan Lainesse(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +60.7|Blue -60.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike MalottTargetYohan Lainesse

By target zone

3
38% acc · 33%
Head
1
33% acc · 100%
4
57% acc · 44%
Body
0
2
100% acc · 22%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

9
53% acc · 100%
Distance
1
25% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mike Malott rounds
0
even
0
Yohan Lainesse rounds
Round 1Mike Malott edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:36
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 17
Sig Strikes
1 / 4
52%
Sig Str %
25%
20 / 28
Total Strikes
1 / 4
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:36
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yohan Lainesse1 / 41 / 40 / 00
1Mike Malott9 / 1720 / 281 / 11

Mike Malott

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Yohan Lainesse

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4