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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Malott won · SUB R2

Elo1552

Elo1475

Mike MalottvsAdam FugittUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Mike Malott won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:06

Style matchupMike Malott: Well-roundedvsAdam Fugitt: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mike Malott wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Mike Malott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Malott at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Malott enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Adam Fugitt (53.5%).
Adam Fugitt has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Malott

Red Corner

Adam Fugitt

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1552

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike MalottW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Jan 24

vs Trevin Giles · Nov 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Oct 25

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 26

latest

Adam FugittL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Jul 22

KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Feb 23

vs Josh Quinlan · Jun 24

KOvs Islam Dulatov · Jul 25

KOvs Ty Miller · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike MalottMetricAdam Fugitt

4.02

Strikes / min

4.88

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.63

57%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike MalottAdam Fugitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Malott(8 fights)Adam Fugitt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.6|Blue -76.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike MalottTargetAdam Fugitt

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

12% acc · 22%

100% acc · 53%

Body

67% acc · 67%

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Malott rounds

even

Adam Fugitt rounds

Round 1Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:19

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 41

Sig Strikes

9 / 28

52%

Sig Str %

35%

19 / 41

Total Strikes

16 / 35

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Adam Fugitt	7 / 23	14 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Malott	14 / 33	14 / 33	2 / 2	0
2	Adam Fugitt	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Malott	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0	1

Mike Malott

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6