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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1351

Elo1480

Mike LullovsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:26

Model Prediction: Mike Lullo wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Lullo at +355 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mike Lullo has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Edson Barboza has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edson Barboza has 73pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Lullo

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

+355

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-445

(82%)

1351

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

178 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Lullo

oldest →

vs Robert Peralta · Sep 11

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike LulloMetricEdson Barboza

2.48

Strikes / min

4.14

4.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

40%

Strike defense

55%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.43

Takedown defense

73%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.36Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.54

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Lullo(2 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.6|Blue +128.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike LulloTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

25% acc · 75%

Head

42% acc · 37%

25% acc · 8%

Body

60% acc · 7%

40% acc · 17%

Leg

92% acc · 56%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Lullo rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 45

Sig Strikes

43 / 69

34.3%

Sig Str %

73.3%

68 / 104

Total Strikes

44 / 70

0 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

5:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edson Barboza	19 / 33	19 / 33	2 / 2	0
1	Mike Lullo	6 / 27	37 / 59	0 / 2	1
2	Edson Barboza	21 / 33	22 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Lullo	5 / 16	30 / 43	0 / 3	0
3	Edson Barboza	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Lullo	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0

Mike Lullo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32