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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Pete Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Elo1496

Mike JacksonvsPete RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pete Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:33

Style matchupMike Jackson: Pressure fightervsPete Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Pete Rodriguez wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Pete Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pete Rodriguez at -675 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pete Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Mike Jackson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Mike Jackson has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Pete Rodriguez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Pete Rodriguez
Blue Corner
+500
(17%)
Vegas Odds
-675
(87%)
1496
Elo
1496
41
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike JacksonW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Feb 16
W
vs CM Punk · Jun 18
W
vs Dean Barry · Apr 22
latest
Pete RodriguezL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Jan 22
L
KOvs Themba Gorimbo · Feb 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike JacksonMetricPete Rodriguez
4.49
Strikes / min
9.28
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
12.83
62%
Strike defense
42%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.00
88%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 4.31 — meaningful gap-3.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1482Strikes4.5 vs 9.3Takedowns0.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Mike JacksonPete Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mike Jackson(4 fights)Pete Rodriguez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -91.0|Blue +91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike JacksonTargetPete Rodriguez

By target zone

8
62% acc · 80%
Head
12
52% acc · 55%
2
100% acc · 20%
Body
8
100% acc · 36%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 9%

By position

9
64% acc · 90%
Distance
13
62% acc · 59%
1
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
6
75% acc · 27%
0
Ground
3
75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mike Jackson rounds
0
even
1
Pete Rodriguez rounds
Round 1Pete Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
10 / 15
Sig Strikes
22 / 33
66%
Sig Str %
66%
11 / 16
Total Strikes
26 / 39
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pete Rodriguez22 / 3326 / 390 / 00
1Mike Jackson10 / 1511 / 160 / 10

Mike Jackson

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4

Pete Rodriguez

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3