Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Roberts won · SUB R1

Elo1351

Mike GuymonvsDaniel RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Roberts won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupMike Guymon: Submission grapplervsDaniel Roberts: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Guymon wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Guymon at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Roberts threatens submissions; Mike Guymon has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Mike Guymon has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Guymon

Red Corner

Daniel Roberts

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Guymon

oldest →

vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida · May 10

SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Jan 11

latest

Daniel RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Forrest Petz · Jul 10

SUBvs Greg Soto · Jan 11

vs Claude Patrick · Apr 11

vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11

vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike GuymonMetricDaniel Roberts

2.75

Strikes / min

0.73

0.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

66%

Strike defense

46%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

2.46

54%

Takedown defense

40%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.96Δ 3.50 — meaningful gap-1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike GuymonDaniel Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Guymon(3 fights)Daniel Roberts(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike GuymonTargetDaniel Roberts

By target zone

0% acc

Head

13% acc · 50%

Body

Leg

50% acc · 50%

By position

0% acc

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Guymon rounds

even

Daniel Roberts rounds

Round 1Daniel Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:17

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 3

Sig Strikes

2 / 10

Sig Str %

20%

0 / 3

Total Strikes

2 / 10

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Roberts	2 / 10	2 / 10	1 / 1	1
1	Mike Guymon	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 1	0

Mike Guymon

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7