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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mike Grundy won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1420

Elo1386

Mike GrundyvsNad NarimaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mike Grundy won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:42

Style matchupMike Grundy: WrestlervsNad Narimani: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nad Narimani wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Mike Grundy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nad Narimani at -340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Grundy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Grundy is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Nad Narimani has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Nad Narimani has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Grundy

Red Corner

Nad Narimani

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1420

Elo

1386

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike GrundyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Movsar Evloev · Jul 20

vs Lando Vannata · May 21

SUBvs Makwan Amirkhani · Mar 22

latest

Nad Narimani

oldest →

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 18

vs Anderson Dos Santos · Nov 18

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike GrundyMetricNad Narimani

2.09

Strikes / min

3.33

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

56%

Strike defense

58%

4.06

TDs / 15 min

1.92

50%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.36Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike GrundyNad Narimani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Grundy(4 fights)Nad Narimani(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.3|Blue -33.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.4|Blue -48.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike GrundyTargetNad Narimani

By target zone

59% acc · 97%

Head

20% acc · 73%

50% acc · 3%

Body

20% acc · 5%

Leg

63% acc · 23%

By position

50% acc · 61%

Distance

22% acc · 91%

82% acc · 27%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

80% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Grundy rounds

even

Nad Narimani rounds

Round 1Mike Grundy edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Grundy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 56

Sig Strikes

22 / 95

55.5%

Sig Str %

22%

36 / 59

Total Strikes

22 / 95

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nad Narimani	6 / 40	6 / 40	0 / 1
1	Mike Grundy	8 / 17	11 / 20	1 / 1
2	Nad Narimani	16 / 55	16 / 55	0 / 0
2	Mike Grundy	25 / 39	25 / 39	0 / 2

Mike Grundy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Nad Narimani

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4