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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Makwan Amirkhani won · SUB R1

Elo1420

Elo1453

Mike GrundyvsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Makwan Amirkhani won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:57

Style matchupMike Grundy: WrestlervsMakwan Amirkhani: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Makwan Amirkhani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Mike Grundy has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Mike Grundy has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Grundy has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mike Grundy

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1420

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike GrundyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nad Narimani · Mar 19

vs Movsar Evloev · Jul 20

vs Lando Vannata · May 21

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike GrundyMetricMakwan Amirkhani

2.09

Strikes / min

1.33

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

46%

4.06

TDs / 15 min

3.96

50%

Takedown defense

35%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.36evenly matched on net striking-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike GrundyMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Grundy(4 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.7|Blue +33.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike GrundyTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Grundy rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Mike Grundy edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:31

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 3

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

Sig Str %

0 / 3

Total Strikes

0 / 1

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1
1	Mike Grundy	0 / 3	0 / 3	1 / 1	0

Mike Grundy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14