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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mike Easton won · M-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1352

Mike EastonvsJared PapazianUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Mike Easton won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Easton: Well-roundedvsJared Papazian: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Mike Easton wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Mike Easton wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Easton at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Easton enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mike Easton has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Easton has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Easton

Red Corner

Jared Papazian

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike EastonL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ivan Menjivar · Jul 12

vs Raphael Assuncao · Dec 12

vs Brad Pickett · Apr 13

vs TJ Dillashaw · Jan 14

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 14

latest

Jared PapazianL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Pague · Jun 12

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike EastonMetricJared Papazian

3.51

Strikes / min

3.33

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

61%

Strike defense

44%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike EastonJared Papazian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Easton(7 fights)Jared Papazian(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike EastonTargetJared Papazian

By target zone

39% acc · 44%

Head

33% acc · 63%

86% acc · 35%

Body

64% acc · 24%

82% acc · 21%

Leg

82% acc · 13%

By position

48% acc · 71%

Distance

37% acc · 81%

89% acc · 29%

Clinch

65% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Easton rounds

even

Jared Papazian rounds

Round 1Mike Easton edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:58

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Mike Easton edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:57

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 3Mike Easton edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:21

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 152

Sig Strikes

68 / 167

56.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

122 / 191

Total Strikes

105 / 220

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

3:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Papazian	17 / 35	34 / 61	0 / 1
1	Mike Easton	24 / 39	41 / 57	0 / 0
2	Jared Papazian	15 / 27	23 / 35	0 / 2
2	Mike Easton	20 / 35	30 / 45	1 / 1
3	Jared Papazian	36 / 105	48 / 124	0 / 0
3	Mike Easton	41 / 78	51 / 89	0 / 2

Mike Easton

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Jared Papazian

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3