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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Davis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1471

Mike DavisvsViacheslav BorshchevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Davis: WrestlervsViacheslav Borshchev: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mike Davis wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Mike Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Davis at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Viacheslav Borshchev enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Davis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Davis

Red Corner

Viacheslav Borshchev

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1495

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Jan 21

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Viacheslav BorshchevL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Hooper · May 24

vs James Llontop · Aug 24

vs Tom Nolan · Feb 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Jun 25

vs Matheus Camilo · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike DavisMetricViacheslav Borshchev

4.73

Strikes / min

5.10

5.23

Strikes absorbed / min

4.46

54%

Strike defense

57%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

0.00

60%

Takedown defense

43%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike DavisViacheslav Borshchev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Davis(8 fights)Viacheslav Borshchev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.3|Blue -23.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +430.0|Blue -430.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike DavisTargetViacheslav Borshchev

By target zone

45% acc · 82%

Head

36% acc · 46%

71% acc · 8%

Body

77% acc · 16%

88% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

36% acc · 42%

Distance

54% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

65% acc · 57%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Davis rounds

even

Viacheslav Borshchev rounds

Round 1Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns4

Control2:52

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control2:17

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 133

Sig Strikes

63 / 118

44.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

101 / 174

Total Strikes

84 / 139

9 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

88.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:02

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Viacheslav Borshchev	21 / 34	22 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Mike Davis	37 / 61	59 / 87	4 / 6	0
2	Viacheslav Borshchev	26 / 60	29 / 63	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Davis	20 / 46	22 / 49	3 / 3	1
3	Viacheslav Borshchev	16 / 24	33 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Davis	8 / 26	20 / 38	2 / 2	0

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Viacheslav Borshchev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9