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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Davis won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1495

Elo1377

Mike DavisvsThomas GiffordUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mike Davis won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:45

Model Prediction: Mike Davis wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Mike Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Davis at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Davis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Thomas Gifford has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mike Davis has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Davis has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Davis

Red Corner

Thomas Gifford

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1495

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Thomas Gifford

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike DavisMetricThomas Gifford

4.73

Strikes / min

3.97

5.23

Strikes absorbed / min

6.45

54%

Strike defense

37%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

0.50

60%

Takedown defense

33%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike DavisThomas Gifford

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Davis(8 fights)Thomas Gifford(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.8|Blue -117.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike DavisTargetThomas Gifford

By target zone

58% acc · 69%

Head

24% acc · 51%

80% acc · 23%

Body

78% acc · 20%

69% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 28%

By position

57% acc · 71%

Distance

35% acc · 91%

94% acc · 12%

Clinch

73% acc · 9%

77% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Davis rounds

even

Thomas Gifford rounds

Round 1Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns1

Control0:31

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:40

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:45

Knockdowns2

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

139 / 222

Sig Strikes

88 / 242

62.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

141 / 224

Total Strikes

89 / 243

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Gifford	36 / 111	37 / 112	0 / 0
1	Mike Davis	67 / 109	68 / 110	1 / 1
2	Thomas Gifford	24 / 73	24 / 73	0 / 1
2	Mike Davis	39 / 64	40 / 65	1 / 1
3	Thomas Gifford	28 / 58	28 / 58	0 / 1
3	Mike Davis	33 / 49	33 / 49	0 / 0

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Thomas Gifford

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2