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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Steven Siler won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Mike Brown
Elo1353
Steven Siler

Mike BrownvsSteven SilerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Steven Siler won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:50

Style matchupMike Brown: WrestlervsSteven Siler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Steven Siler wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Steven Siler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Siler at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Steven Siler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Brown
Red Corner
VS
Steven Siler
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1490
Elo
1353
50
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike BrownW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Diego Nunes · Jan 11
L
vs Rani Yahya · Jan 11
W
vs Nam Phan · Aug 11
W
vs Daniel Pineda · May 12
latest
Steven SilerL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Darren Elkins · Nov 12
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Apr 13
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Nov 13
L
KOvs Rony Jason · Mar 14
L
vs Noad Lahat · Jul 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike BrownMetricSteven Siler
2.98
Strikes / min
3.21
2.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
60%
Strike defense
54%
3.23
TDs / 15 min
0.47
66%
Takedown defense
55%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1545Strikes38.8 vs 46.0Takedowns2.6 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.40Form0.5 vs 0.5
Mike BrownSteven Siler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mike Brown(5 fights)Steven Siler(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.9|Blue -136.9
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +336.0|Blue -336.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike BrownTargetSteven Siler

By target zone

2
100% acc · 67%
Head
5
33% acc · 83%
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
1
100% acc · 17%

By position

3
100% acc · 100%
Distance
2
25% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
50% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mike Brown rounds
0
even
1
Steven Siler rounds
Round 1Steven Siler edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 3
Sig Strikes
6 / 16
100%
Sig Str %
37%
3 / 3
Total Strikes
6 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Steven Siler6 / 166 / 170 / 00
1Mike Brown3 / 33 / 30 / 00

Mike Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5

Steven Siler

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9