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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mike Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Mike BrownvsNam PhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Mike Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Brown: WrestlervsNam Phan: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nam Phan wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Mike Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nam Phan at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nam Phan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Brown

Red Corner

Nam Phan

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Brown

oldest →

vs Diego Nunes · Jan 11

vs Rani Yahya · Jan 11

vs Daniel Pineda · May 12

KOvs Steven Siler · Aug 13

latest

Nam PhanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11

vs Cole Miller · Aug 12

vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Dec 13

vs Vaughan Lee · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike BrownMetricNam Phan

2.98

Strikes / min

4.52

2.45

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

60%

Strike defense

59%

3.23

TDs / 15 min

0.18

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike BrownNam Phan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Brown(5 fights)Nam Phan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.4|Blue -137.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike BrownTargetNam Phan

By target zone

48% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 68%

41% acc · 12%

Body

73% acc · 29%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

31% acc · 42%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

75% acc · 10%

Clinch

83% acc · 48%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Brown rounds

even

Nam Phan rounds

Round 1Mike Brown edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns2

Control4:07

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:47

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mike Brown edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:43

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 123

Sig Strikes

38 / 120

46.3%

Sig Str %

29%

138 / 213

Total Strikes

51 / 133

5 / 18

TDs

0 / 0

30.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nam Phan	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0
1	Mike Brown	33 / 49	106 / 133	2 / 4
2	Nam Phan	23 / 70	30 / 77	0 / 0
2	Mike Brown	11 / 32	13 / 34	1 / 7
3	Nam Phan	13 / 42	19 / 48	0 / 0
3	Mike Brown	16 / 42	19 / 46	2 / 7

Mike Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8