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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Nunes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Mike BrownvsDiego NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Nunes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Brown: WrestlervsDiego Nunes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mike Brown wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Diego Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Brown at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Mike Brown

Red Corner

Diego Nunes

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Brown

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Jan 11

vs Nam Phan · Aug 11

vs Daniel Pineda · May 12

KOvs Steven Siler · Aug 13

latest

Diego Nunes

oldest →

vs Kenny Florian · Jun 11

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Dec 11

vs Dennis Siver · Apr 12

vs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 12

vs Nik Lentz · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike BrownMetricDiego Nunes

2.98

Strikes / min

2.72

2.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

60%

Strike defense

58%

3.23

TDs / 15 min

1.18

66%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike BrownDiego Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Brown(5 fights)Diego Nunes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike BrownTargetDiego Nunes

By target zone

39% acc · 38%

Head

42% acc · 42%

69% acc · 13%

Body

81% acc · 38%

89% acc · 49%

Leg

81% acc · 20%

By position

25% acc · 19%

Distance

55% acc · 63%

80% acc · 47%

Clinch

68% acc · 35%

92% acc · 34%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Brown rounds

even

Diego Nunes rounds

Round 1Mike Brown edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns2

Control2:24

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:01

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:28

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 117

Sig Strikes

65 / 111

56.7%

Sig Str %

59%

101 / 164

Total Strikes

75 / 122

4 / 16

TDs

0 / 1

24.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:53

Ctrl Time

2:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Nunes	18 / 27	20 / 29	0 / 0
1	Mike Brown	35 / 52	47 / 69	2 / 7
2	Diego Nunes	25 / 45	29 / 49	0 / 1
2	Mike Brown	13 / 35	21 / 47	1 / 5
3	Diego Nunes	22 / 39	26 / 44	0 / 0
3	Mike Brown	20 / 30	33 / 48	1 / 4

Mike Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6