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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mike Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1489

Mike BrownvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Brown: WrestlervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Brown wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Mike Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Brown at -118 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Brown has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Brown

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Brown

oldest →

vs Diego Nunes · Jan 11

vs Rani Yahya · Jan 11

vs Nam Phan · Aug 11

KOvs Steven Siler · Aug 13

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike BrownMetricDaniel Pineda

2.98

Strikes / min

2.85

2.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

60%

Strike defense

45%

3.23

TDs / 15 min

1.42

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike BrownDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Brown(5 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +209.0|Blue -209.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike BrownTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

45% acc · 61%

Head

30% acc · 79%

94% acc · 39%

Body

67% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 45%

Distance

30% acc · 75%

88% acc · 39%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

50% acc · 16%

Ground

71% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Brown rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Mike Brown edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:35

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Mike Brown edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:44

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:28

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 67

Sig Strikes

28 / 80

53.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

141 / 196

Total Strikes

54 / 118

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:47

Ctrl Time

3:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Pineda	13 / 32	17 / 36	0 / 2
1	Mike Brown	12 / 23	29 / 46	2 / 3
2	Daniel Pineda	8 / 34	11 / 37	1 / 1
2	Mike Brown	20 / 30	58 / 70	0 / 2
3	Daniel Pineda	7 / 14	26 / 45	0 / 0
3	Mike Brown	6 / 14	54 / 80	0 / 0

Mike Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13