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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Michael McDonald won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1491
Michael McDonald

Miguel TorresvsMichael McDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupMiguel Torres: Elusive strikervsMichael McDonald: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Miguel Torres wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Torres at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Miguel Torres has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Michael McDonald has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Miguel Torres has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Torres
Red Corner
VS
Michael McDonald
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1490
Elo
1491
45
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel Torres
oldest →
W
vs Antonio Banuelos · Feb 11
L
vs Demetrious Johnson · May 11
W
vs Nick Pace · Nov 11
latest
Michael McDonald
oldest →
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13
L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13
W
SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16
L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel TorresMetricMichael McDonald
3.98
Strikes / min
2.69
1.86
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
74%
Strike defense
57%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.09
17%
Takedown defense
52%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.12Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1547Strikes49.0 vs 31.7Takedowns0.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.00Form0.4 vs 1.0
Miguel TorresMichael McDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Miguel Torres(4 fights)Michael McDonald(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel TorresTargetMichael McDonald

By target zone

6
23% acc · 75%
Head
13
24% acc · 81%
1
50% acc · 13%
Body
3
75% acc · 19%
1
100% acc · 13%
Leg
0

By position

8
28% acc · 100%
Distance
14
25% acc · 88%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Miguel Torres rounds
0
even
1
Michael McDonald rounds
Round 1Michael McDonald edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
8 / 29
Sig Strikes
16 / 59
27%
Sig Str %
27%
8 / 29
Total Strikes
16 / 59
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael McDonald16 / 5916 / 590 / 00
1Miguel Torres8 / 298 / 290 / 00

Miguel Torres

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9