Welterweight

3 Rounds

Miguel Baeza won · SUB

Elo1493

Elo1459

Miguel BaezavsTakashi SatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miguel Baeza won

SUB

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Miguel Baeza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Takashi Sato enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Takashi Sato is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Takashi Sato (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza

Red Corner

Takashi Sato

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · May 20

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21

KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21

KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22

vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24

latest

Takashi SatoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19

KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 22

KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricTakashi Sato

4.09

Strikes / min

2.21

5.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

46%

Strike defense

44%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.76

54%

Takedown defense

60%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83evenly matched on net striking-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miguel BaezaTakashi Sato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.7|Blue -33.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel BaezaTargetTakashi Sato

By target zone

40% acc · 40%

Head

20% acc · 67%

71% acc · 50%

Body

50% acc · 27%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

49% acc · 80%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miguel Baeza rounds

even

Takashi Sato rounds

Round 1Miguel Baeza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:07

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Miguel Baeza edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:02

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 73

Sig Strikes

15 / 58

54.5%

Sig Str %

25.5%

43 / 82

Total Strikes

15 / 58

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takashi Sato	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Miguel Baeza	18 / 37	19 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Takashi Sato	7 / 29	7 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Miguel Baeza	22 / 36	24 / 44	1 / 2	1

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7