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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Punahele Soriano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1535

Miguel BaezavsPunahele SorianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -192 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Punahele Soriano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Punahele Soriano is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza

Red Corner

Punahele Soriano

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1493

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · May 20

SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21

KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21

KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22

latest

Punahele SorianoW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 23

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricPunahele Soriano

4.09

Strikes / min

4.42

5.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.97

54%

Takedown defense

48%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miguel BaezaPunahele Soriano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Punahele Soriano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +595.0|Blue -595.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel BaezaTargetPunahele Soriano

By target zone

0% acc

Head

129

82% acc · 90%

75% acc · 86%

Body

87% acc · 9%

33% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

56% acc · 71%

Distance

43% acc · 2%

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

136

83% acc · 94%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miguel Baeza rounds

even

Punahele Soriano rounds

Round 1Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:47

42Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:46Control

Round 3Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

53Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

144 / 175

68.3%

Sig Str %

82%

22 / 33

Total Strikes

331 / 394

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 6

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

10:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Punahele Soriano	42 / 59	54 / 80	2 / 2	0
1	Miguel Baeza	5 / 9	11 / 17	0 / 2	3
2	Punahele Soriano	49 / 59	93 / 111	2 / 2	0
2	Miguel Baeza	1 / 2	3 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Punahele Soriano	53 / 57	184 / 203	1 / 2	0
3	Miguel Baeza	1 / 1	8 / 10	0 / 0	0

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11