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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Miguel Baeza won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1493
Elo1499
Matt Brown

Miguel BaezavsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Miguel Baeza won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:18

Style matchupMiguel Baeza: Pressure fightervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Miguel Baeza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1493
Elo
1499
33
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20
L
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21
L
KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21
L
KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22
L
vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24
latest
Matt Brown
oldest →
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19
L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21
W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21
L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22
W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricMatt Brown
4.09
Strikes / min
3.76
5.92
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
46%
Strike defense
55%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.68
54%
Takedown defense
63%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1552Strikes4.8 vs 3.8Takedowns0.5 vs 1.6Sub Atts1.10 vs 1.50Form1.0 vs 0.8
Miguel BaezaMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.7|Blue +5.7
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25