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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Khaos Williams won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1512

Miguel BaezavsKhaos WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khaos Williams won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:02

Style matchupMiguel Baeza: Pressure fightervsKhaos Williams: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Khaos Williams wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Khaos Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khaos Williams at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khaos Williams is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza

Red Corner

Khaos Williams

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · May 20

SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21

KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22

vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24

latest

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · May 24

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Feb 25

vs Andreas Gustafsson · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricKhaos Williams

4.09

Strikes / min

4.94

5.92

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

46%

Strike defense

40%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

54%

Takedown defense

51%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miguel BaezaKhaos Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Khaos Williams(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.2|Blue +19.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel BaezaTargetKhaos Williams

By target zone

37% acc · 42%

Head

24% acc · 47%

25% acc · 3%

Body

86% acc · 12%

100% acc · 55%

Leg

67% acc · 41%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 73%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

79% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miguel Baeza rounds

even

Khaos Williams rounds

Round 1Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 56

Sig Strikes

49 / 131

52.7%

Sig Str %

38%

32 / 57

Total Strikes

60 / 145

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khaos Williams	16 / 32	27 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Miguel Baeza	4 / 7	5 / 8	0 / 2	5
2	Khaos Williams	26 / 77	26 / 77	0 / 1	0
2	Miguel Baeza	23 / 40	23 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Khaos Williams	7 / 22	7 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Miguel Baeza	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	0

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9