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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Andre Fialho won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1473

Miguel BaezavsAndre FialhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Fialho won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:39

Style matchupMiguel Baeza: Pressure fightervsAndre Fialho: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Andre Fialho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Fialho enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Miguel Baeza is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Andre Fialho has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Andre Fialho is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Miguel Baeza

Red Corner

Andre Fialho

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1493

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miguel BaezaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · May 20

SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 21

KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21

vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24

latest

Andre FialhoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22

KOvs Jake Matthews · Jun 22

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · May 23

KOvs Tim Means · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miguel BaezaMetricAndre Fialho

4.09

Strikes / min

3.30

5.92

Strikes absorbed / min

6.26

46%

Strike defense

45%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.25

54%

Takedown defense

66%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miguel BaezaAndre Fialho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miguel Baeza(7 fights)Andre Fialho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miguel BaezaTargetAndre Fialho

By target zone

31% acc · 63%

Head

46% acc · 59%

100% acc · 17%

Body

71% acc · 16%

83% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

51% acc · 78%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miguel Baeza rounds

even

Andre Fialho rounds

Round 1Andre Fialho edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 58

Sig Strikes

32 / 56

41%

Sig Str %

57%

24 / 58

Total Strikes

32 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Fialho	32 / 56	32 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Miguel Baeza	24 / 58	24 / 58	0 / 0	0

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Andre Fialho

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7