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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miesha Tate won · M-DEC R3

Elo1495

Miesha TatevsSara McMannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiesha Tate: Submission grapplervsSara McMann: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Miesha Tate wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miesha Tate at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate

Red Corner

Sara McMann

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1495

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha Tate

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricSara McMann

2.62

Strikes / min

2.26

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.92

51%

Strike defense

47%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

4.38

56%

Takedown defense

50%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miesha TateSara McMann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miesha Tate(10 fights)Sara McMann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetSara McMann

By target zone

29% acc · 61%

Head

27% acc · 74%

75% acc · 26%

Body

73% acc · 24%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

33% acc · 3%

By position

31% acc · 65%

Distance

26% acc · 56%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

78% acc · 21%

78% acc · 30%

Ground

36% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miesha Tate rounds

even

Sara McMann rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:20Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:09

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control4:47

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 60

Sig Strikes

34 / 105

42.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

75 / 115

Total Strikes

44 / 118

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:56

Ctrl Time

4:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sara McMann	14 / 44	22 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Miesha Tate	5 / 11	15 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Sara McMann	19 / 59	21 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Miesha Tate	13 / 39	16 / 42	0 / 0	1
3	Sara McMann	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0
3	Miesha Tate	5 / 10	44 / 50	0 / 0	1

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13