← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miesha Tate won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1357

Miesha TatevsRin NakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · Saturday, September 20, 2014Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiesha Tate: Submission grapplervsRin Nakai: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Miesha Tate wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miesha Tate at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rin Nakai has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Miesha Tate has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate

Red Corner

Rin Nakai

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1495

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'1"

165.1 cm

Reach

152.4 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha Tate

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Rin Nakai

oldest →

vs Leslie Smith · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricRin Nakai

2.62

Strikes / min

1.57

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

51%

Strike defense

60%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

3.00

56%

Takedown defense

75%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-2.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miesha TateRin Nakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miesha Tate(10 fights)Rin Nakai(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.6|Blue -138.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetRin Nakai

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 44%

75% acc · 33%

Body

38% acc · 38%

80% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

35% acc · 51%

Distance

29% acc · 44%

76% acc · 45%

Clinch

43% acc · 56%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miesha Tate rounds

even

Rin Nakai rounds

Round 1Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:54

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:23

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Rin Nakai edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:26

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 116

Sig Strikes

16 / 47

45.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

88 / 150

Total Strikes

52 / 86

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 19

50%

TD %

15%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

3:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rin Nakai	10 / 27	31 / 50	0 / 6
1	Miesha Tate	31 / 58	37 / 64	1 / 1
2	Rin Nakai	2 / 8	10 / 17	1 / 5
2	Miesha Tate	13 / 34	35 / 56	0 / 0
3	Rin Nakai	4 / 12	11 / 19	2 / 8
3	Miesha Tate	11 / 24	16 / 30	0 / 3

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Rin Nakai

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach—

Fights2