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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1504

Miesha TatevsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiesha Tate: Submission grapplervsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raquel Pennington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1495

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha Tate

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricRaquel Pennington

2.62

Strikes / min

4.10

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

51%

Strike defense

61%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

0.83

56%

Takedown defense

62%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miesha TateRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miesha Tate(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

24% acc · 38%

Head

48% acc · 72%

39% acc · 52%

Body

100% acc · 19%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

23% acc · 52%

Distance

41% acc · 44%

56% acc · 48%

Clinch

87% acc · 30%

Ground

69% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miesha Tate rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:35

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:36

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:15

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 65

Sig Strikes

43 / 77

29.7%

Sig Str %

53%

48 / 93

Total Strikes

111 / 156

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

11%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

6:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raquel Pennington	8 / 21	14 / 27	0 / 0	2
1	Miesha Tate	7 / 29	12 / 34	1 / 3	0
2	Raquel Pennington	24 / 37	55 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Miesha Tate	13 / 32	26 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Raquel Pennington	11 / 19	42 / 55	1 / 1	1
3	Miesha Tate	1 / 4	10 / 13	0 / 1	0

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19