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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miesha Tate won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1492

Miesha TatevsLiz CarmoucheUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiesha Tate: Submission grapplervsLiz Carmouche: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Liz Carmouche wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Liz Carmouche at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Liz Carmouche has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate

Red Corner

Liz Carmouche

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1495

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha Tate

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricLiz Carmouche

2.62

Strikes / min

2.78

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

51%

Strike defense

61%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

2.57

56%

Takedown defense

65%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miesha TateLiz Carmouche

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miesha Tate(10 fights)Liz Carmouche(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -52.0|Blue +52.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetLiz Carmouche

By target zone

49% acc · 74%

Head

25% acc · 22%

22% acc · 7%

Body

60% acc · 17%

71% acc · 19%

Leg

85% acc · 61%

By position

25% acc · 33%

Distance

30% acc · 39%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 39%

100% acc · 56%

Ground

100% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miesha Tate rounds

even

Liz Carmouche rounds

Round 1Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:15

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:28Control

Round 2Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:56

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:40

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 57

Sig Strikes

18 / 34

48.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

82 / 124

Total Strikes

75 / 95

1 / 7

TDs

5 / 7

16.7%

TD %

70.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:51

Ctrl Time

6:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Liz Carmouche	8 / 13	30 / 37	3 / 4	0
1	Miesha Tate	7 / 19	31 / 45	0 / 2	0
2	Liz Carmouche	4 / 11	14 / 22	2 / 3	0
2	Miesha Tate	10 / 23	21 / 34	0 / 3	1
3	Liz Carmouche	6 / 10	31 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Miesha Tate	10 / 15	30 / 45	1 / 2	1

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10