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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miesha Tate won · SUB R3

Elo1495

Elo1490

Miesha TatevsJulia AvilaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:15

Model Prediction: Miesha Tate wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miesha Tate enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate

Red Corner

Julia Avila

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1495

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha TateL3 streak

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 16

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Julia Avila

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 19

KOvs Gina Mazany · Jun 20

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 20

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jun 21

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricJulia Avila

2.62

Strikes / min

2.81

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

0.63

56%

Takedown defense

52%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miesha TateJulia Avila

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miesha Tate(10 fights)Julia Avila(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -385.0|Blue +385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetJulia Avila

By target zone

89% acc · 97%

Head

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

63% acc · 16%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

Clinch

93% acc · 84%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miesha Tate rounds

even

Julia Avila rounds

Round 1Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:54

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:50

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control1:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 37

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

58.7%

Sig Str %

20.3%

127 / 152

Total Strikes

11 / 21

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:55

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julia Avila	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Miesha Tate	16 / 18	50 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Julia Avila	2 / 7	10 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Miesha Tate	16 / 18	69 / 82	1 / 2	0
3	Julia Avila	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
3	Miesha Tate	0 / 1	8 / 9	2 / 2	1

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Julia Avila

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6