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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Amanda Nunes won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Miesha Tate
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes

Miesha TatevsAmanda NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:16

Style matchupMiesha Tate: Submission grapplervsAmanda Nunes: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Miesha Tate wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miesha Tate at +265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Amanda Nunes has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Amanda Nunes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Miesha Tate
Red Corner
VS
Amanda Nunes
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-325
(76%)
1495
Elo
1501
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
165.1 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miesha Tate
oldest →
W
KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21
L
vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21
L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23
L
vs Yana Santos · May 25
latest
Amanda NunesW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22
W
vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miesha TateMetricAmanda Nunes
2.62
Strikes / min
4.55
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
51%
Strike defense
57%
1.97
TDs / 15 min
2.73
56%
Takedown defense
82%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.43Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1559Strikes35.7 vs 21.2Takedowns1.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.57 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.8
Miesha TateAmanda Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Miesha Tate(10 fights)Amanda Nunes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.2|Blue +6.2
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miesha TateTargetAmanda Nunes

By target zone

2
17% acc · 67%
Head
35
65% acc · 88%
1
50% acc · 33%
Body
3
60% acc · 8%
0
0% acc
Leg
2
50% acc · 5%

By position

3
21% acc · 100%
Distance
30
60% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Clinch
3
60% acc · 8%
0
Ground
7
88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Miesha Tate rounds
0
even
1
Amanda Nunes rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 15
Sig Strikes
40 / 63
20%
Sig Str %
63%
3 / 15
Total Strikes
40 / 63
0 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:27

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Amanda Nunes40 / 6340 / 630 / 01
1Miesha Tate3 / 153 / 150 / 50

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18