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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mickey Gall won · SUB R1
Elo1485
Mickey Gall
Elo1367

Mickey GallvsGeorge SullivanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Mickey Gall won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:09

Style matchupMickey Gall: Submission grapplervsGeorge Sullivan: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Mickey Gall wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Mickey Gall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mickey Gall at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mickey Gall enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Mickey Gall threatens submissions; George Sullivan has lost 75% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mickey Gall (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mickey Gall
Red Corner
VS
George Sullivan
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
1485
Elo
1367
34
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mickey GallL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jordan Williams · Jul 21
L
vs Alex Morono · Dec 21
L
KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 22
L
vs Bassil Hafez · Jun 24
L
KOvs Ramiz Brahimaj · Nov 24
latest
George SullivanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Igor Araujo · Sep 14
L
SUBvs Tim Means · Apr 15
W
vs Dominic Waters · Jul 15
L
KOvs Alexander Yakovlev · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Niko Price · Jan 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mickey GallMetricGeorge Sullivan
3.50
Strikes / min
3.53
4.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
49%
Strike defense
57%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
1.37
37%
Takedown defense
38%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.22Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1497Strikes9.5 vs 38.7Takedowns0.8 vs 1.0Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.50Form-0.0 vs -0.8
Mickey GallGeorge Sullivan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Mickey Gall(10 fights)George Sullivan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +118.2|Blue -118.2
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mickey GallTargetGeorge Sullivan

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mickey Gall rounds
1
even
0
George Sullivan rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:00
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 2
Sig Strikes
0 / 0
0%
Sig Str %
—
2 / 6
Total Strikes
5 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1George Sullivan0 / 05 / 50 / 00
1Mickey Gall0 / 22 / 61 / 11

Mickey Gall

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7