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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mickael Lebout won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1376

Mickael LeboutvsTeemu PackalenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mickael Lebout won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mickael Lebout wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Mickael Lebout wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mickael Lebout at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Teemu Packalen has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mickael Lebout

Red Corner

Teemu Packalen

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1376

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mickael LeboutL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Moraes · Apr 15

vs Stevie Ray · Oct 15

latest

Teemu PackalenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Thibault Gouti · Feb 16

KOvs Marc Diakiese · Mar 17

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mickael LeboutMetricTeemu Packalen

2.60

Strikes / min

2.57

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

54%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.31

60%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mickael LeboutTeemu Packalen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mickael Lebout(3 fights)Teemu Packalen(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +114.6|Blue -114.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mickael LeboutTargetTeemu Packalen

By target zone

39% acc · 56%

Head

52% acc · 80%

83% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 17%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 74%

Distance

57% acc · 80%

Clinch

0% acc

69% acc · 26%

Ground

64% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mickael Lebout rounds

even

Teemu Packalen rounds

Round 1Teemu Packalen edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control2:47

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 2Mickael Lebout edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:25

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Mickael Lebout edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:42

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 85

Sig Strikes

35 / 61

45%

Sig Str %

57.3%

68 / 112

Total Strikes

41 / 70

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 11

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:54

Ctrl Time

3:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Teemu Packalen	6 / 10	10 / 14	1 / 4	0
1	Mickael Lebout	1 / 3	13 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Teemu Packalen	12 / 24	13 / 26	1 / 4	1
2	Mickael Lebout	23 / 48	29 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Teemu Packalen	17 / 27	18 / 30	1 / 3	0
3	Mickael Lebout	19 / 34	26 / 42	0 / 1	0

Mickael Lebout

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Teemu Packalen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4