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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mick Parkin won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1515

Elo1468

Mick ParkinvsLukasz BrzeskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mick Parkin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:23

Style matchupMick Parkin: Pressure fightervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mick Parkin wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Mick Parkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mick Parkin has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mick Parkin

Red Corner

Lukasz Brzeski

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1515

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mick Parkin

oldest →

vs Jamal Pogues · Jul 23

vs Caio Machado · Nov 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Mar 24

vs Marcin Tybura · Mar 25

latest

Lukasz BrzeskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Karl Williams · Mar 23

KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23

vs Valter Walker · Apr 24

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mick ParkinMetricLukasz Brzeski

4.70

Strikes / min

4.90

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

0.41

50%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mick ParkinLukasz Brzeski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mick Parkin(5 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.6|Blue -46.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mick ParkinTargetLukasz Brzeski

By target zone

63% acc · 85%

Head

43% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

60% acc · 13%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

64% acc · 82%

Distance

53% acc · 83%

75% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

75% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mick Parkin rounds

even

Lukasz Brzeski rounds

Round 1Mick Parkin edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 52

Sig Strikes

24 / 42

65%

Sig Str %

57%

34 / 52

Total Strikes

26 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lukasz Brzeski	24 / 42	26 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Mick Parkin	34 / 52	34 / 52	0 / 0	0

Mick Parkin

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Lukasz Brzeski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7