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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mick Parkin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1496

Mick ParkinvsJamal PoguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mick Parkin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMick Parkin: Pressure fightervsJamal Pogues: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mick Parkin wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Mick Parkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mick Parkin at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamal Pogues has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mick Parkin

Red Corner

Jamal Pogues

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1515

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mick Parkin

oldest →

vs Caio Machado · Nov 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Mar 24

KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 24

vs Marcin Tybura · Mar 25

latest

Jamal Pogues

oldest →

vs Josh Parisian · Feb 23

vs Thomas Petersen · Feb 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mick ParkinMetricJamal Pogues

4.70

Strikes / min

3.57

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

58%

Strike defense

49%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

2.00

50%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mick ParkinJamal Pogues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mick Parkin(5 fights)Jamal Pogues(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mick ParkinTargetJamal Pogues

By target zone

39% acc · 39%

Head

18% acc · 61%

80% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 11%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

61% acc · 97%

Distance

26% acc · 94%

60% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mick Parkin rounds

even

Jamal Pogues rounds

Round 1Mick Parkin edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Mick Parkin edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Mick Parkin edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 156

Sig Strikes

36 / 135

60%

Sig Str %

26.3%

98 / 159

Total Strikes

37 / 136

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamal Pogues	21 / 79	22 / 80	0 / 1
1	Mick Parkin	32 / 50	32 / 50	0 / 0
2	Jamal Pogues	7 / 30	7 / 30	0 / 0
2	Mick Parkin	19 / 34	22 / 37	0 / 0
3	Jamal Pogues	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0
3	Mick Parkin	44 / 72	44 / 72	0 / 0

Mick Parkin

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Jamal Pogues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4