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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mick Parkin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1481

Mick ParkinvsCaio MachadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mick Parkin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMick Parkin: Pressure fightervsCaio Machado: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Mick Parkin wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Mick Parkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mick Parkin at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Caio Machado has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mick Parkin

Red Corner

Caio Machado

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1515

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mick Parkin

oldest →

vs Jamal Pogues · Jul 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Mar 24

KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 24

vs Marcin Tybura · Mar 25

latest

Caio MachadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Apr 24

vs Brendson Ribeiro · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mick ParkinMetricCaio Machado

4.70

Strikes / min

5.82

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

58%

Strike defense

63%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap+2.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mick ParkinCaio Machado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mick Parkin(5 fights)Caio Machado(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.4|Blue -34.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mick ParkinTargetCaio Machado

By target zone

36% acc · 85%

Head

43% acc · 54%

67% acc · 5%

Body

92% acc · 32%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

37% acc · 87%

Distance

56% acc · 89%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mick Parkin rounds

even

Caio Machado rounds

Round 1Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:45

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:32

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 98

Sig Strikes

76 / 132

39%

Sig Str %

62%

69 / 139

Total Strikes

103 / 164

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

27.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:23

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caio Machado	24 / 43	34 / 54	0 / 1
1	Mick Parkin	7 / 22	11 / 30	2 / 4
2	Caio Machado	17 / 21	34 / 42	0 / 0
2	Mick Parkin	9 / 20	35 / 53	1 / 3
3	Caio Machado	35 / 68	35 / 68	0 / 0
3	Mick Parkin	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 3

Mick Parkin

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Caio Machado

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3